Quality, GOE and PCS

The ISU judging system was conceived with the idea of evaluate the difficulty of what the skaters do on the ice, but also the quality. These are two different things. A quadruple jump is more difficult than a triple jump, so his base value is higher. But the quality of a quadruple jump with a long preparation, of little height and little width, and with a landing unsure, is worst than the quality of a triple jump with no preparation, big and with a perfect landing, and the GOEs must say this truth. The final mark must be the sum of the two charachteristic, the base value and the quality of execution. If this doesn’t happen, there’s something really wrong with the way in which the ISU judging system is applied.

I’m doing several stats. If you find any mistakes – there’s always a possibility of a typo, and in this case the result will be wrong – please, say it to me, so I can correct. I’ve decided to publish all the data, even if it requires much time, so anyone can check what I’m doing.

Some months ago I did a stats on the GOEs. Now I’ve seen that there’s a mistake in the final table, so some day I’ll do again the full stats. But anyway from that episode came something interesting. I’ve seen two reactions. The first was rage, a thing that I understand. The second was a dismiss of what I’ve written. According to the critics, in the last years Hanyu did several mistakes, so naturally his GOE is lower than before. This isn’t accurate, every year he did mistakes in some competition, not only recently, so we can watch his average quality. The only truth that can impact the stats is that now for the mistakes the deductions are higher. So… you know what? When someone critics me, my reaction is to think. I did something wrong? What can I do now? It’s the third time that someone inspired me to write, even if his intention probably was to stop me to write.

I’ve checked only the excellence, the short programs in which Hanyu surpassed the 100 points. These are all excellent programs, so none can say that a low score is due to mistakes. The first screenshot are my data so, if you want to do it, you can check if I did any mistake. After there’s the elaboration with some graphics, so if you aren’t interested in the raw data but in the results you can go under this screenshot.

I’ve checked 18 competitions (internationals but also nationals). For space problems I can’t put them in only one line, so there are three blocks. For every block, at the top is a simple transcription of the protocols (elements, GOE awarded to Hanyu, max possibile GOE for that element, and percentage of the GOE earned by Hanyu), at the bottom I’ve transcripted the data, but putting on the same line the triple Axel, the solo jump, the combination, the step sequence and the spins, divided by type. At first I write about the total, after I write about the single elements.

Starting from this data I did a stat and a graph. In the next screenshot there are three lines. For completeness I added the base value of these programs (first line) and the PCS (third line), but now the most interesting line is the second, the percentage of the GOEs earned by Hanyu. In bold I’ve highlighted when he did a World record. I’ve written four notes under four programs. In the first three cases, he earned a negative GOE on the solo jump, so obviously the whole GOE is lower. In the fourth a spin was invalidated, so the difference was not in the GOE but in the base value. The larger vertical line marks the passage from the +3/-3 system to the +5/-5 system.

In the past when he skated clean, Hanyu received GOEs higher than now. The quality of his elements is worsened? Really? The two times when he received the lower marks are in the Grand Prix of Finland, a World record, and in the last World Championship. What were watching these judges? The combination and the 3A deserved +5, why the judges gave lower marks?

These are the percentage of the GOEs of the jumps. It’s fascinating to see that until the Olympic Games Hanyu received 10 times a perfect mark among his 30 jumps (33%), and after only one of 21 jumps (0,5%) received the same score.

On the triple Axel he goes from a 90% of score to a 84,66%, on the solo jump, if we don’t watch the three mistakes (one fall, two bad landing), he goes from 87,47% to 79,3%, in the combination he goes from 84,01% to 61,45%.

These are the spins:

Last graph for the GOEs. Average for jumps and spins, and GOE for the step sequence.

I have a serious question to some of the judges of the last World Championship. I don’t argue on the level, but I’m perplexed on the GOEs. The British Lisa Davidson give a +3, the Azerbaijani Iryna Medvedieva, the Finnish Pia Alhonen, the Georgian Salome Chigogidze, the Swedish Inger Andersson and the Russian Sviatoslav Babenko give a +4, and I really want to understand what lack among
1) deep edges, clean steps and turns
2) element matches the music
3) effortless throughout with good energy, flow and execution
4) creativity and/or originality
5) excellent commitment and control of the whole body
6) good acceleration and deceleration.
For curiosity, do you think that there’s another skater that can do a step sequence so complex, and so fast, without falling on his nose?

All the rules for positive GOEs are these:

And the protocol is this:

Go to watch the program, and after say to me that the rules were applied in the correct way. In the last years it seems that for Hanyu is used a most strict rulebook. His scores – non his elements – are worsening, and this lead him lost medals that he deserves, as a silver instead of a bronze in the last World Championship.

And if above I watched only the GOEs, the GOEs weren’t the only marks lowered by the judges. In my first graph it’s impossible to understand the differences in the PCS, so I did another graph.

The orange line is the average. It wasn’t so low from the Grand Prix of Finland. At the Olympic Games he earned 48.50 points of PCS. Before, he earned more points three times. In the 2015-2016 season Hanyu destroyed the ISU scoring system. The ISU don’t admit it clearly, but it was obvious that the system wasn’t anymore adeguate to evaluate what he does on the ice. At the 2015 Grand Prix Final he received a score of 49.14 points in the components. Before his score is lower, but it was in that moment that he did a big improvement in the components (it’s right to remember that in the previous season he never competed healty). From GPF 2015 and OG 2018 he received 4 of 7 times (57%) a score of 48.50 points or more, after in eight perfect short program he never received a score of 48.50 points. Hanyu’s score was lowered. When he skates at his best, is he really worst now than in the last three years before the Olympic Games?